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Possible Rate Hike of 125 Points; Oil Prices Fall for 3 Days, US Stocks Down 1,200 Points in 6
Last night, the United States released its Producer Price Index (PPI) data, causing a late plunge in the U.S. stock market, with all three major indices closing lower.
The minutes from the Federal Reserve's meeting indicated that there will still be substantial interest rate hikes in the next two months, which also led to a three-day consecutive decline in international crude oil prices.
The most closely watched inflation data, the Consumer Price Index (CPI), will be announced tonight, and it is expected that the international financial markets will experience significant fluctuations as a result.
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The minutes from the Federal Reserve's September interest rate meeting were released yesterday. Through the relevant content, it can be seen that the Federal Reserve predicts that after the two meetings in November and December this year, there will still be substantial interest rate hikes. The most probable scenario is a 75 basis point increase in November and a 50 basis point increase in December, accumulating to another 125 basis points.
The Federal Reserve has already conducted five interest rate hikes, totaling 300 basis points.
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If the two rate hikes before the end of the year are completed as planned, the interest rate will exceed 4%, getting closer to the expected 4.5%.
However, since this is the content from last month's meeting, the market is more focused on the statements of Federal Reserve officials after the CPI is announced tonight.
But regardless, repeated rate hikes seem to have failed to control inflation, with the only effect being a hit to the economy.Last night, the fluctuations in the U.S. stock market were minimal, with the indices mostly hovering slightly above the water for most of the trading session. However, towards the end, there was a sudden drop, and all three major indices closed lower, albeit with small declines.
The Dow Jones and Nasdaq both fell by 0.1%, while the S&P 500 only declined by 0.3%.
Although the drop was not significant yesterday, due to consecutive declines, the Dow has fallen from 30,454 points last Wednesday to 29,210 points this Wednesday, losing over 1,200 points.
The state of the U.S. stock market is similar to that of the European stock markets, which also collectively fell yesterday, but with similarly small declines. France and Germany each fell by 0.2% and 0.4%, respectively, while the UK's decline was close to 0.9%.
Due to the calm indices, the fluctuations in individual stocks were also not significant.
Among the tech giants, Netflix saw a higher increase of 3%, while most other individual stocks fluctuated within 1%.
However, stocks reflecting the reopening of the economy, such as cruise lines, saw a significant increase. Norwegian Cruise Line and Royal Caribbean both rose by more than 10%.
The United States now has fewer means to impose sanctions, and recently, the U.S. has set its sights on Russia's aluminum ore exports. Biden plans to completely ban the import of Russian aluminum ore, which has led to a 7% surge in the price of metal aluminum on the London futures market. This has also driven the aluminum sector stocks in the U.S. stock market to rise, with many stocks increasing by more than 5%.
As for Chinese concept stocks, they have halted the significant declines of the past two days, rising slightly by 0.21% yesterday, outperforming the broader market.Yesterday, the US Department of Labor released the Producer Price Index (PPI) as part of the inflation data. Regardless of whether viewed on a month-over-month or year-over-year basis, the PPI figures exceeded market expectations, indicating that inflation in the United States has not yet been brought under control and may even be poised to rise again.
In August, the PPI experienced a month-over-month decline, but in September, it rebounded with a higher-than-expected increase. Concurrently, compared to the same period last year, the PPI grew by 8.5%, still at a historically high level.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has once again downgraded its growth forecast for the United States. In July, it predicted a growth rate of 2.3% for the US economy this year, which has now been revised down to 1.6%, with an expectation of a 1% growth rate for the following year.
Affected by a series of disappointing economic data, international crude oil prices have fallen for three consecutive trading days.
The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price reached a high of $93.64 on Monday and barely closed above $90, but it broke through the $90 mark on Tuesday. On Wednesday, it fluctuated and ultimately fell by 2.5%, closing at $87.10, having already dipped below $87 during the trading day.
Over the past three trading days, the continuous decline in crude oil prices has exceeded $6.
The impact of OPEC+'s production cut agreement on the market seems to be fading.
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