On Monday, the US Dollar Index touched a 10-week high, extending its multi-week bullish trend, and closed up 0.28% at 103.20. The index returned to trading within a triangular pattern, with technical indicators suggesting resistance. Strong economic activity data will not prevent the Federal Reserve from continuing to lower interest rates as long as the trend of falling inflation persists. It is expected that US retail sales data for September will increase by 0.4% month-on-month, and the labor market remains resilient, with employment growth rate not affected by Hurricane Helene.
On Tuesday (October 15), during the Asian market session, gold prices suddenly dropped sharply, with the price just falling to around $2642 per ounce, as the US dollar maintained a positive momentum at the beginning of the week. Spot gold faced moderate bearish pressure on Monday, affected by news from the Middle East, which suppressed the safe-haven buying of gold. The latest news indicates that Iran has passed information to Israel through a secret pipeline, stating that if Israel's retaliatory actions are "limited," Iran will consider ending this round of exchanges between the two sides.
Advertisement
Gold will retest the support level of $2640; if this support level is broken, it may open the way to the range of $2623-2635. The gold price failed to break through the resistance level of $2666, which is the 76.4% retracement level, close to the peak of wave b. This failure indicates that the downtrend starting from $2685 may extend. The rise starting from $2603 also lost momentum near the downtrend line. However, Xu Gucheng believes that there is at least a high probability of a decent correction. If it breaks through $2654, it may trigger a contract increase to $2666.
Gold: Yesterday's price rose and fell, and the daily line closed with a negative candle, which did not form a price deviation from the short-term moving average. This is a bit short of the mark for a short-term high. From a weekly perspective, this week is still at a turning point for price changes, and the room for upward movement is limited. The spinning top near the resistance level of $2659 on Monday marked the weakness of the rise. A pullback to the range of $2613-2636 may be a better choice than breaking through $2659. After breaking through $2613, the gold price will fall to the range of $2559-2592. Therefore, today's operation, Xu Gucheng believes that today's gold relies on the $2653 as a dividing point between bulls and bears to continue to see fluctuations. If it can reach below $2624/22, then consider entering a long position. Yesterday's continuous decline has already induced a pullback to go long today, especially relying on the support position of $2640-36. There is no intention to go long here, preferring to break through $2653 and then consider it, temporarily looking at a downward correction to maintain fluctuations.
Crude oil: It has been consolidating between the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. On Monday, crude oil broke through the 50-day moving average, indicating a potential downward trend. After today's opening, the price is challenging the low of $71.58 per barrel set last Wednesday. If this level is broken, it means increased bearish pressure. The RSI is declining from an overbought level, indicating further bearish momentum. As long as the price remains below the 200-day moving average of $77.42, the overall trend remains bearish. On the 4-hour chart, WTI crude oil prices are breaking through the middle line of the upward channel. Short-term momentum is bearish, and the RSI indicates that prices are likely to move further downward, with the strong support level for crude oil below $67. Following the technical trend, the daily cycle has a large negative candle that penetrates the support of the Bollinger middle rail, showing clear weakness. The upper pressure point is around $73/73.5. Although the intraday view is bearish, it is not suitable to directly chase shorts. If a rebound forms, short positions can be taken at this point, and then look at the downward space.
Leave A Comments