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Tesla Loses $470B in One Night: Musk's Robotaxi Fails to Impress Investors?
Elon Musk's "Mars dream" has made new progress. On the evening of October 13th Beijing time, SpaceX, the American space exploration technology company, launched the fifth test flight of the Starship rocket and successfully captured the booster, which is over 20 stories high, for the first time. This achievement marks an important step for SpaceX towards making the Starship a fully reusable rocket system.
As the CEO of SpaceX, Musk is undoubtedly excited by this milestone progress. Just two days before SpaceX launched the Starship rocket, another company led by Musk, Tesla, suffered a significant drop in market value.
Reporters noted that on the morning of October 11th Beijing time, Tesla held a new product launch event themed "WE ROBOT", where they unveiled the Robotaxi autonomous taxi service, two fully self-driving models - the Cybercab cyber unmanned taxi and the Robovan unmanned multi-purpose vehicle - and introduced wireless induction charging technology for Robotaxi.
"This will be one for the history books." This was Musk's promotional phrase for the aforementioned launch event. Tesla also fully warmed up for the launch event, which made the outside world full of expectations for it.
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On the day of the launch event, due to someone feeling unwell on the scene and needing medical treatment, the launch event was delayed by more than 50 minutes. After that, Musk entered the venue in a Robotaxi (autonomous taxi) without a steering wheel or pedals.
Reporters also watched Tesla's aforementioned launch event live that day. Musk's speech time was less than half an hour, and although the atmosphere was enthusiastic and the appearance of new products sparked widespread discussion, Musk did not mention the detailed issues that the outside world was concerned about.
It is worth noting that after the aforementioned new product launch event, Tesla's market value suffered a significant drop. Its stock price fell by 8.78% on the 11th, closing at $217.8 per share, and the company's total market value evaporated overnight by $67 billion, which is more than 470 billion yuan in Chinese currency.
In the research report released by Bank of Communications International, it was mentioned: "Although we believe that this launch event basically met expectations, due to the high expectations and high emotions of the market in the early stage, there may be a gap in reality."
Regarding some detailed issues that the outside world is concerned about, Tesla China told reporters that the information that can be announced now is also the information at the launch event.
The launch event had highlights but lacked details."I just arrived here by taking our Robotaxi, and there are more than 20 such vehicles outside. It can be seen that these Robotaxis are constantly driving on the road, and they are driverless inside," Musk said in his opening remarks of the day.
At the launch event, the autonomous taxi Cybercab, the driverless van Robovan, and the latest prototype of the humanoid robot Optimus were unveiled. It is worth noting that both the new models of Cybercab and Robovan have eliminated the steering wheel and pedals.
Reporters learned that in the future, users will be able to purchase the Cybercab, with an estimated cost of less than $30,000. The Cybercab is expected to achieve mass production between 2026 and 2027, equipped with an AI5 chip. The vehicle does not have a charging port and will use wireless induction charging.
Before the mass production of this model, users can experience Robotaxi through the S3XY models and Cyber off-road travel cars equipped with unsupervised FSD full self-driving capabilities. All cars produced by Tesla will be compatible, provided that these models achieve unsupervised full self-driving after obtaining regulatory approval in the United States, and then will gradually be promoted to areas outside the United States.
Musk also mentioned the operating cost of Cybercab. According to his estimate, the operating cost of Cybercab may drop to about 20 cents per mile (approximately 0.9 yuan/km) over time. In the United States, the cost including tax and other fees is 30 cents to 40 cents (approximately 1.3 yuan to 1.8 yuan), which everyone can afford. The average cost per mile for urban buses in the United States is 1 dollar (approximately 4.4 yuan/km, not the bus fare, because the fare includes subsidies).
The reporter noticed that another driverless vehicle released by Tesla this time is the Robovan. It is said that this is a larger vehicle than the Model Y, which can carry 20 people at a time. It can be used for commercial travel, private travel, school buses, or cargo transportation, and is expected to reduce transportation costs to 5 cents to 10 cents per mile (approximately 0.2 yuan to 0.4 yuan/km).
In addition to the above information, many detailed issues of Tesla's Robotaxi were not mentioned. A research report released by Shengli Securities stated: "Overall, the information conveyed at this press conference did not exceed market expectations. As for the focus of market attention, such as the start time of the Robotaxi service, the charging model, the specific plan for promotion in various global markets, when to achieve profitability, and the safety accident response strategy, Tesla did not provide a detailed explanation at this press conference."
In response to the sharp decline in Tesla's stock price after the press conference, Jiang Han, a senior researcher at Pangu Think Tank, told reporters that although Tesla's press conference was amazing in some aspects, Musk did not provide detailed answers to many issues of concern to the outside world. "Take Robotaxi as an example. Although its 2026 production schedule was announced, it is only a vague time frame, without a specific market launch time, and lacks the detailed details that the market expects. For investors and consumers, such information is obviously not enough. In a competitive market environment, uncertainty often leads to worries and doubts."
Jiang Han further explained: "The lack of specific details in Tesla's press conference means that it is impossible to accurately assess key factors such as its cost, performance, and market demand. For example, the lack of details in aspects such as the vehicle's driving range, charging time, and riding comfort makes it difficult for people to imagine the performance of this product in actual use. Moreover, technical challenges and supply chain issues that may be encountered in the production process have also become more complicated due to the lack of details. Investors worry that these uncertainties will turn into risks, thereby affecting the company's future earnings, which is why the market is cautious about this."
Bai Wenxi, the vice chairman of the China Enterprise Capital Alliance, also told reporters that the sharp decline in Tesla's stock price after the press conference reflects investors' concerns about Tesla, including the uncertainty of technological implementation, the challenge of regulatory approval, and worries about market competition.Taking the uncertainty of technological implementation as an example, Bo Wenxi said that although Tesla has demonstrated its ambition in autonomous driving technology, investors may have reservations about the timing and reliability of these technologies, especially in fully autonomous driving technology.
The global market size of Robotaxi is expected to reach 834.9 billion yuan by 2030.
The reason why Tesla's press conference has attracted high attention from the outside world is, on the one hand, because Tesla is a leading company in the autonomous driving industry, and on the other hand, the commercialization of Robotaxi has become a key area for competition among upstream and downstream enterprises in the automotive industry.
What is the prospect of Robotaxi? According to a research report released by Guosheng Securities, the Robotaxi market has a broad space. According to Frost & Sullivan's forecast, the total global market size of Robotaxi will reach 834.9 billion yuan by 2030, with a CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate) of 239% from 2024 to 2030, and a CAGR of 31% from 2030 to 2035. China and the United States are the first echelon of Robotaxi. The United States started early, such as Waymo, Cruise, etc., while China's commercialization progress is faster, and Luobo Kuaibao has achieved the commercialization of Robotaxi.
The reporter noticed that according to public reports, as early as 2016, Tesla had begun to layout Robotaxi. It is reported that although this time Tesla's new product launch lacks details, its strength in the field of intelligent driving is still not to be underestimated.
Bo Wenxi said that Tesla's release of Robotaxi services, as well as the Cybercab and Robovan models without steering wheels, pedals, and wireless induction charging, shows its leading position in promoting the commercialization of autonomous driving technology. These innovations may become the "catfish" of the industry, promoting the industry to accelerate development, improve competition levels, and promote technological progress and innovation.
In addition, Everbright Securities said in its research report: "We believe that Tesla has made in-depth technical reserves in high-level autonomous driving without steering wheels + pedals, and iterative algorithms for humanoid robots, which may accelerate industry upgrades and iterations."
The release of Robotaxi services is inseparable from Tesla's strong technical strength. In terms of technology, behind Robotaxi is Tesla's FSD full autonomous driving capability. Based on the "end-to-end" large model algorithm and powerful computing power, FSD's full autonomous driving capability will allow Tesla to travel anywhere on Earth without relying on high-precision maps in the future. According to Tesla's plan, before 2025, the "unsupervised version" of FSD full autonomous driving capability will be officially launched in Texas and California.
Outside the United States, Tesla will continue to follow regulatory dynamics. The Model Y, which is now equipped with AI4 hardware, also supports the upgrade of full autonomous driving capability FSD. Bo Wenxi said that Tesla's unmanned vehicles still face challenges in obtaining regulatory approval, including the uncertainty of regulations and standards, safety requirements, technical verification, and public acceptance.
"Tesla's FSD with driver supervision has already done very well. FSD will transition from a supervised mode to an unsupervised fully autonomous driving. You can get on the car directly, and the car can automatically take you to the destination. But there is a challenge in vehicle manufacturing costs. It costs money to buy a car, insurance costs money, and car parking costs money. It is really very expensive." Musk said about the FSD that the outside world is concerned about.For full self-driving, Musk stated that if a car is fully autonomous, its usage rate could be increased by 5 to 10 times, resulting in a 5 to 10 times increase in the value of the same vehicle, with weekly usage time potentially exceeding 100 hours or even reaching over 160 hours.
In terms of safety, Musk claimed that the safety level achieved by Full Self-Driving (FSD) could be about 10 times higher than human driving. Relevant data shows that Tesla's Autopilot automatic assistance driving system has already raised the level of driving safety to 10.3 times that of ordinary driving.
Reporters learned that currently, users can experience Tesla's intelligent driving capabilities on the Model S3XY series and every Tesla vehicle is equipped with the configuration and capability to upgrade to more advanced autonomous driving software through Over-The-Air (OTA) remote software updates. Tesla's millions of vehicles are conducting tests and collecting data, having experienced extreme situations that ordinary people would never encounter in a lifetime.
Musk explained, "With so much training data, the FSD driving level will definitely be much higher than that of humans."
It is worth noting that Musk also believes that future business models will be very interesting. Today's ride-hailing drivers could manage a fleet of vehicles in the future, such as ten or twenty cars, and operate these cars like a shepherd tends to his flock. "You have a fleet, then you are a 'car herder,' responsible for taking care of your 'herd of cars.'"
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